Friday, September 6, 2013

"Рыбкин, Иван Петрович - 002, aka Edward Snowden! At your service, comrades!" or The Dupes Of The Year: Snowden Affair As A Mass Manipulation Campaign Planned And Organised By Russian Military Intelligence

9.6.13

This post was repeatedly deleted from Blogger (I do not know by whom, most likely by Russians), that is why I need to reproduce it again. Unfortunately, the latest updates appear to be lost. 


Stantis-friends-like-these-0626


06/25/2013

First published on 8.13.13 at 7:57 PM Last update: 9.5..13

"Рыбкин, Иван Петрович - 002, aka Edward Snowden! At your service, comrades!" or The Dupes Of The Year: Snowden Affair As A Mass Manipulation Campaign Planned And Organised By Russian Military Intelligence


"Рыбкин, Иван Петрович - 002, aka Edward Snowden!At your service, comrades!" or

The Dupes Of The Year: Snowden Affair As AMassManipulationCampaignPlanned And Organised By Russian Military Intelligence


The views and thoughts expressed in this post are strictly my personal ones.

I do have the impression thatSnowdenaffair and some events prior and subsequent to it constitute a carefully planned and executed Russian Intelligence operation, most likely by theGRU,judging by its scope, precision and aggressive bent,possibly as a retaliation for their previous failures (detection and arrests of their agents in June of 2010).

I also have the impression thatMr. Snowden is a mentally ill person: he appears to be intensely paranoid which can be viewed as a part of schizoid personality disorder, probably anorectic and probably has some psychosexual problems: "I’m famously paranoid... I was a virgin source". He also appears to be, quite obviously, grandiose, which can be viewed as a part of narcissistic personality disorder; any personality and its disorder is a complex mosaic. It is also possible that he is overtly or latently psychotic and delusional. 


"In May 2013, Snowden was permittedtemporary leave from his position at the NSA in Hawaii, on the pretext of receiving treatment for his epilepsy." This information on "Snowden's epilepsy", although sketchy, might be very telling and significant: some persons suffering from various types of epilepsy experience heightened susceptibility to hypnotic suggestions and a unique psychophysiological ability to be placed in a state of induced, deep hypnotic trance with the potential consequences for their behaviors to be manipulated and directed by a controlling outside force, including, potentially, the "insertion" and reinforcement of ideas (usually if they do not contradict substantially the subject's own mindset and views but sometimes even if they are contrary to subject's previous experience and values).Snowden's illnesswas also mentioned in a different context, as an explanation of his difficulties in adolescence."Snowden's father explainedthat his son had missed several months of school owing to illness and, rather than return, took and passed the tests for his GED at a local community college." "Missing several months of school" due to "illness" is quite an unusual and irregular occurrence. On the basis of reviewingthe video of his interview in Hong Kong(which was discussed in some details elsewhere), I have some preliminary impression that some twitching-like movements in his mouth, which are quite notable, especially to a trained observer, might be involuntary and might be a manifestation ofTardive Dyskinesia, which usually is a side effect of treatment with neuroleptic medication. These two (or three) pieces of information might be complementary to each other and might be an indication that Snowden experienced in his adolescence a prolonged, of several months duration,psychotic episodewhich required treatment withneuroleptics. His "epilepsy-like illness" and a hypothetical susceptibility to outside suggestions, with or without deephypnotic trance(which, generally speaking,was of great interestto Russian Intelligence services for a long time, probably from early 1930-s) is also an indication that this health vulnerability or peculiarity might be continuously exploited by the outside forces which now control him, and this can be done in quite sophisticated and almost undetectable ways.

As of late, it seems to me, there is a tendency among various Russian secret services (this tendency apparently spread by a certain way of corruptive "osmosis") to use a certain substance, "психотропный препарат СП-117" which probably is close to what is called a "truth serum" to deepen and enhance the susceptibility to induced trance and suggestions, as the case ofIvan Rybkin(Иван Петрович Рыбкин) and possibly some others might illustrate,the details of which, although quite educating, I must omit due to the limitations of space and time and the unlimited ways of observing them.

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Quote:

Russia - fromTruth serum - W:

A defector from the biological weapons department 12 of the KGB "illegals" (S) directorate (presently a part of RussianSVRservice) claimed that a truth serum codenamed SP-117 was highly effective and has been widely used. According to him, "The 'remedy which loosens the tongue' has no taste, no smell, no colour, and no immediate side effects. And, most important, a person has no recollection of having the 'heart-to-heart talk'" and felt afterwards as if they suddenly fell asleep. Officers of the S directorate used the drug primarily to check the trustworthiness of their own illegal agents who operated overseas, including even heroes of the service, such asVitaly Yurchenko.[21]According toAlexander Litvinenko,Russian presidential candidateIvan Rybkinwas drugged with the same substance by FSB agents during his alleged kidnapping.[22]

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sp-117 truth serum - GS

sp-117 russia - GS

snowden rybkin - GS

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Quote:

"В редакцию NEWSRU.com поступило заявлениеот бывшего сотрудника ФСБ Александра Литвиненко, проживающего сейчас в Лондоне. Он, в частности, утверждает, что все указывает на то, что в отношении Рыбкина применяли психотропный препарат СП-117. Он используется в ФСБ в подразделениях контрразведки и по борьбе с терроризмом, в исключительных случаях против особо важных объектов. Препарат действует на орган, который в мозгу человека отвечает за контроль за его поведением, то есть тот, в отношении которого он применен, не в состоянии полностью контролировать свое сознание, и говорит все что, знает, то есть отвечает на все вопросы откровенно. С человеком, который находится под воздействием СП-117 можно делать все что угодно и по прошествии времени он не в состоянии будет подробно вспомнить внятно объяснить, что же с ним произошло на самом деле, с кем он встречался и что говорил."

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Some of these notable cases I will mention though: the strange and mysterious death ofNicole John, a daughter of the US ambassador to Thailand in NYC at the end of August 2010, soon afterViktor Bout's extradition "was eventually mandated by the Thai High Court in August 2010" and possibly the cases ofGareth WilliamsandDenis Yevsyukov. The occasional reports of "drugging and kidnapping" also pop up here and there in the Russian press sometimes.

The wave of "klonophyllinshchiks" (клофелинщик,клофелинщики) those who allegedly use a substance called "Klonofilin or Klofilin" (which sounds close to the name of a long acting benzodiazepine, "Klonopin", but in fact, in literal translation means "the one which is liked byclones (robots, zombies, etc.)or having some affinity with them); in early 2000-s, at least in the capitals, which was used, as suspected, rather broadly by criminals to put their victims to sleep; might also be an indication that some substances and instructions for their use found their way into the criminal world from the top-secret KGB laboratories, similar to thosementioned by Ms. Smirnova, in those "hungry and trying" for them years, in late 1990-s and early 2000-s, when they apparently felt so "neglected and abandoned" that they decided to unload some of their "top secrets" and in a very practical way.

Since Mr. Snowdenwasmost likely prescribed some medication, and possibly some barbiturates and/or benzodiazepines for the treatment of his somewhat mysterious "epileptic illness" and might have used or abused some other ones, which might be in some circumstantial connection withhis girlfriend(the true nature of this relationship is still unknown well publicly) and her lifestyle of a nightclub dancer, his putative suggestibility might have been enhanced by some drugs, prescribed or otherwise. His appearance at the Hong Kong interview: generally blunted, monotonous, "restricted" affective range with expressions of controlled but intense anger and rage confirms indirectly the possibility of benzodiazepines and/or barbiturates and/or other drugs use or abuse.

I think that Mr. Snowden and his illness were cynically and probably with some prior knowledge exploited by the GRU for the purposes ofideological and informational aggression. The participation and cooperation ofChinese(and possibly other services, e.g.Iranianand of someLatin Americancountries) also appear to be quite likely. This does not exclude the importance ofthe issuesthat have been raised, although I do not see anything particularly new or extraordinary in them. America is strong enough to handle many and any problems, andwill and is doing it. This is not the point.The point isthat this whole hullabaloo looks as anact of ideological aggressioninstigated and introduced by foreign powers forunmistakably hostile purposes: to weaken the first and leading country of the world which they see as a domineering competitor. The healthy democratic process will and is taking its course and the needed amendments and corrections are and will be made. However this is not the way to start this process, under the hostile pressure from hostile "powers" (which apparently feel pretty much "depowered", if not "deflowered") which had created and used this situation for their own hostile purposes.

Mr. Snowden, in his sick,pathological grandeurand definitely tohis new employersglee and facetious satisfactiontries to directly oppose himself personally and tochallenge the Presidentof The United States to debate and discussion. Please excuse me for this strong expression but I cannot call Mr. Snowden anything else but a little sick nothing piece of shit. And other people around himwho try so hard to fan the flamesof this "affair" are in same way sick and are in the same shitty company. A good Russian word for them is "выскочка": "[a little nothing] upstart, parvenu", the one who wants or tries to jump out of his place.One of the optionsis probably just to spit on him and to ignore him and his sycophants;they are nothing morebut the cheap little nothings, trying to make some money and publicityfor themselves; they are"the useful idiots"ofanti-Americanismas an ideology, international political disease, mortal fear and rabid hatred, because they feel that America threatens them and theircriminal ways of life, whichthey want to expandunto others. Russian criminalStalinismrears its ugly, half alive and half demented head again. 

Thesnowdenchiks and their ilktry hard to dotheir snow jobs, but they themselves eventually will be drowned and buried under the mountains of theirdirty Russian snowwhich has no other way but to melt and to pass by as water under the the bridge in a new and inevitablethawand to be forgotten forever: a proper punishment for thecrime of Herostratus.

Links and References 


OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR | The Drive to Blame Russia By THOMAS GRAHAM - Published: August 21, 2013 - NYT

8.22.13

Mike Nova comments:

These are, it seems to me, the most surprisingly"dovish" remarksfrom aformer "by default hawk". The "real challenge Russia poses on the world stage" cannot be measured reliably by her military and political might alone; the all pervasive and eventually a decisive factor,the mentality of the country and her leaders, might be just if not more important, along, probably with some deep non-conscious or semi-conscious roots and determinants of this particular "national mentality", or, as is a more familiar term, "national character"; in her role "on the world stage" or in her proper place in The United States' relationships with the world, including Russia.

It is interesting to note, thatAllan Dulles, one of the most artful and skillful observers and planners,emphasised this "intangible" setof factors in general assessments and impression forming, including any country's national habits, "spirit", culture, literature, etc.

It seems to me, in my very humble opinion (I am not by any means an expert or specialist in Russian affairs; just an occasional, by the side of the road, observer), that contemporary Russian social and political mentalities are thoroughly soaked in her historically formed, deeply and broadly rooted "criminal element": "the criminal element in society... the criminal underworld" (which was always acknowledged by Russian Communists - Stalinists as a "related, socially close element"; read: the same cutthroats, killers, robbers and thieves; with somewhat unusual for them honesty and directness) and that they "wash off their colors" quite readily, and irrespectively of her, Russia's motives or desires, in her zombie-like, habitual historical trance; most recently in her post - and - neo - stalinist mode, embodied and em-faced by the current Russian president V. Putin and his ruling circle. This "criminality of national conscience", "a Moral Black Hole", to share the expression and the idea ofAriel Cohen, might be viewed as one or the most pervasive and important for understanding traits of her national character and the current point of her "national psyche". And which is more: it carries an expansionist, messianic, almost religious quality in it and seeks, for its own safety, to pervade, influence and control everything and everyone.

Quote from
WebMemo #3306 on Russia and Eurasia
June 30, 2011
Reset Regret: Moral Leadership Needed to Fix U.S.–Russian Relations

By Ariel Cohen, Ph.D. and Donald N Jensen, Ph.D.:

"A Moral Black Hole.
The roots of the Russian elite’s discontent lie in imperial nostalgia, phantom pains of autocracy, and questionable morality. The end of communism resulted in a moral black hole—a deep spiritual and identity crisis among the elites. Corruption, alcoholism, and blurred lines between organized crime and authority reflect general alienation, recklessness, and fatalism.
Nations fail, St. Augustine argued, because peoples fail. A healthy society can correct a deficient state, but even the best-designed states will founder if they are based upon a deficient civil society.

This degradation bears directly on Russia’s conduct of its foreign policy. Those who keep calling for an engagement that will eventually transform Russia cannot see thatit is the West, not Russia, that is being transformed by this contact."

Political and social diseases are contagious, we might conclude; just as it was saidabout "insanity".

This is a part ofcriminal mentality(which might includea "second rate spy" mentality in the case of Russiaalso): to view the world as one huge criminal enterprise and other players as the competing criminals and crooks; and "if they are not, they should be turned into the such and with all the sorts of arsenals of instruments", according to this mentality.

That is why, it logically follows that Russia is a threat and will be a threat until this historically determined "criminal element" in her psyche is eradicated or is, at least, effectively controlled. Russia' quality as a present and a potential future threat is confirmed by her duplicitous, hypocritical and selfish international strategies and behaviors and her shortsighted, reactionary and oppressive domestic policies in this current "Putin Redux cum Regent" term.


Links and References to this comment:

criminal element definition - GS



  1. Element-Definitionand More from the Free Merriam-Webster...

    www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/element

    Definitionof element from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary with audio...c : a distinct group within a larger group or community <thecriminal elementin...

  2. criminal-definitionofcriminalby Macmillan Dictionary

    www.macmillandictionary.com/dictionary/british/criminal

    Definecriminal. What is criminal? criminalmeaningand more by Macmillan Dictionary....thecriminal elementin society. the criminal underworld (=people who...

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    allen dulles - GS

    allen dulles quotes - GS

    allen dulles russia - GS

    If the experts could point to any single book as a starting point for understanding the subject of intelligence from the late twentieth century to today, that single book would beAllen W. Dulles's The Craft of Intelligence.

    Quotes:



Thoughts From Allen Dulles:


Thoughts On Freedom - Forbes

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Links and References to this post:

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8:49 AM 8/23/2013

»Op Ed: Manning and Snowden Play Russian Roulette - Calbuzz
22/08/13 07:03 fromEdward Snowden - Google News
CalbuzzOp Ed: Manning and Snowden Play Russian RouletteCalbuzzThe only person more upset than Army Pfc. Bradley Manning this week, other than Manning himself, is probably fellow leaker Edward Snowden. Manning's 35-year-sentence and dish...
»Edward Snowden NSA files: secret surveillance and our revelations so far - The Guardian
22/08/13 06:32 fromEdward Snowden - Google News
The GuardianEdward Snowden NSA files: secret surveillance and our revelations so farThe GuardianIn the 11 weeks since the Guardian published its first revelations from top-secret material leaked by the NSA contractor Edward Snowden, the pap...



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Obama, Snowden and Putin - By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN - Published: August 13, 2013 - NYT

Snowden affair as kgb operation
- GS

Joshua Foust - Freelance Journalist

Quotes:

"12 Jul 2013
...
As a rule, when a cleared intelligence employeeseeks refuge in another country running a hostile intelligence service while carrying gigabytes of top secret documents, that isn’t the behavior of a whistleblower. That is the behavior of a defector. The involvement of known FSB operatives at his asylum acceptance – and the suddenly warm treatment of HRW and Transparency International after months of government harassment – suggests this was a textbook intelligence operation, and not a brave plea for asylum from political persecution.
...

Snowden told reporters today that he has no desire to harm the U.S., and wants the country to “succeed,” whatever that means. I’m sure the White House is relieved to know a 30-year old IT worker has its best interests in mind as he preaches about human rights from one of the world’s worst human rights abusers.

Most of Snowden’s most prominent defenders were in touch with him long before he chose to leak; Wikileaks, which has developed deeper ties to the Russian and Belorussian governments, apparently helped Snowden travel to Moscow. This looks like the first trickle of information before a bizarre — and complex — intelligence operation gets blown open in the public. That doesn’t mean Wikileaks wittingly participated (useful idiots abound) but I bet money U.S. counterintelligence officials are now wondering just how deep the Russia connection to Snowden — and, to Wikileaks — really goes."

July 14, 2013 - Joshua Foust's Strange Post on Snowden's Defection

Other Posts byJoshua Foust - Freelance Journalist

The Proliferation of Edward Snowden - 26 Aug 2013

Important New Details Emerge in Snowden’s Flight - 26 Aug 2013

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Edward Snowden Seeking to Join KGB Veterans Group
Participation in union would likely change Snowden’s status as whistleblower to intelligence defector

Quote:

"Kenneth deGraffenreid, former National Security Council staff intelligence director, said Snowden’s embrace by former KGB officials is a sign the former contractor is being used as a pawn in an international program of “active measures,” political operations aimed at harming the United States.

“And the United States is apparently totally unequipped to address this threat,” deGraffenreid said in an interview, adding that he doubts that either the FBI or CIA has any counterintelligence programs designed to thwart such anti-U.S. political operations.

DeGraffenreid said Snowden, along with Army Pfc. Bradley Manning who was charged with leaking secrets to WikiLeaks, are part of a global anti-American network “that runs from Russia, to China to Iran to Venezuela to WikiLeaks and the European Union – all of whom want to do ill toward the United States.”

“Snowden is being used as a pawn in this and we have no ability, as we did during the Cold War, to conduct counter-active measures and political warfare,” he said."

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July 18, 2013
The Company He Keeps Hero, fool or knave?

History gives plenty of reasons to be skeptical of "whistleblowers" like Edward Snowden.
Michael Weiss- See more at:
http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1463#sthash.BTPZ3zMv.dpuf

Quote:
"Journalists who have abandoned their professional skepticism of Snowden, his methods and his motives would do well to revisit the case of another leaker once heralded as a champion of transparency and civil liberties: Philip Agee, the rogue CIA agent who published scores of names of covert U.S. operatives from Europe to Africa. History hasn’t been kind to the initial assessments of Agee as a brave “whistleblower” and speaker of truth to power. Indeed it didn’t take too long for Agee to quite clearly reveal himself as a Soviet operative.
...
Much has been written in recent weeks about refraining from turning Edward Snowden into the real story and keeping our eye firmly affixed on the NSA’s disregard for the privacy of its own citizens. This argument has merit, though it would have even more if Snowden had not chosen to make the story all about himself, first by seeking refuge in authoritarian states hostile to the United States, then by rendering moral judgments about those states solely on the basis of how they have treated him.

Is he simply a fool to believe that Vladimir Putin has “earned the respect of the world” for welcoming a former U.S. intelligence contractor onto Russian soil with reams of classified security documents? (Perhaps we should ask the family of Sergei Magnitsky, or Alexei Navalny whether the Putin regime deserves our respect.)

Is Snowden so desperate to avoid capture by Washington that he will prostrate himself in this way, in the confidence that his many admirers and cheerleaders will extend to him the benefit of every doubt and not bother to question the very questionable stagehands now surrounding him? Or is he a knave who knows exactly what he’s doing and getting away with it with a little help from his friends? We cannot know the answer from the scant information available to us in media accounts. But if history is any judge, there should be no assumptions accorded to the good faith of ex-spies who wind up as wards of dictatorial regimes."

- See more at: http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1463#sthash.BTPZ3zMv.dpuf

Philip Agee - GS

Philip Agee, 72, Is Dead; Exposed Other C.I.A. Officers - NYT

Angela Camargo Seixas - GS


9.2.13

Mike Nova comments:
This article by Michael Weiss in "The American Interest" draws very important and enlightening parallels and analogies between theAgee affairand the Snowden affair. Apparently, in both of them the turncoats-traitors-defectors were used mostly as a very convenient cover for the materials obtained by the KGB and/or GRU (the same but military "kontora") as a separate effort: planned, well organised, systematic, meticulous, performed in advance and coordinated with the main goals of the operation, one of which, in this most recent Snowden case, probably was to weaken and to limit the scope of domestic surveillance under the pressure of public's privacy and other concerns, in order, among the other objectives, to make the detection of Russian "sleeper" and other agentsmore difficultand to retaliate for the past failures associated with these detections. It is conceivable that the strategies and the mechanics of past "successful operations" are studied, reused and recycled by these agencies, since the new good ideas are not that easy to come by.

"Were the NSA files and information obtainedby Russian (Military Intelligence?) hackers by themselves first and later "conveniently" fed to Snowden or skillfully "inserted" into his "download files"? This might be at least a partial answer to the rather extensive size of his "collection", the exact contents of which still are undetermined and probably would not be determined for a long time." 8.26.13

The possibility of separate, independent and prior collection of "Snowden Files", mentioned by me in these earlier comments, opens the potentiallly new and important avenue for investigation.

In the light of such an elaborate history, the concerns of British investigative agencies expressed in their court testimony (a document most remarkable for its classic patina style and logically laid out substance) are more than justified:

New York Times ignored UK request to destroy Edward Snowden documents



Furthermore, it appears that Snowden himself does not possess the exact knowledge of materials in his vast collection and by now has very little or no control over it.

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Snowden: US and Israel did create Stuxnet attack code

Spying Is a Sovereign Right
29 August 2013 | Issue 5202
By Michael Bohm
Read more: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/spying-is-a-sovereign-right/485257.html#ixzz2dkbOBgZ1
The Moscow Times

Putin's anti-US measures more spiteful than strategic
Global Times | 2013-8-19 19:43:01

By Charles A. Kupchan

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
Illustration: Liu Rui/GT
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« Edward Snowden Partied with the Russians in Hong Kong on His 30th Birthday | Main | Why Doesn't Joshua Foust Ever Write About Jacob Appelbaum in the WikiLeaks and Snowden Story? »
08/30/2013
"At the time of the speech, in December 2012, he may have already known that Edward Snowden existed, because Snowden supposedly first contacted Glenn Greenwald and then Laura Poitras that time -- and she would have undoubtedly contacted Appelbaum and asked him to help her verify Snowden's claims and encrypt the hacked files involved. Perhaps he even helped create a wish list of what would be best to hack.

But looking at this speech superficially as just one of the literally hundreds of speeches Appelbaum has given all around the world at various hacker fests misses an important point:the Chaos Computer Club has been central to WikiLeaks, to Julian Assange and his colleagues, and to the Snowden affair and his defection to Moscow.

And, as they say, perhaps it is no accident, comrades, becausethe CCC has a history of dealing with the KGB, even selling the KGB hacked files from Western governments for drugs and money. This sensational past is rarely discussedwhen WikiLeaks is covered, and when the question is raised as to how WikiLeaks and Russian intelligence are related. The KGB, of course, has a long history of working through leftist German movements, publishing houses and newspapers and taking advantage of the extensive ties between Germany and Russia throughout history."

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Snowden affair as intelligence operation against the United States - GS

Reviewed on: 12:46 PM 9/5/2013

The Snowden Affair
Web Resource Documents the Latest Firestorm over the National Security Agency

National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 436

Posted – September 4, 2013

Edited by Jeffrey T. Richelson


Snowden affair as an international program of "active measures"
- GS

Snowden affair as russian military intelligence operation - GS

russian military intelligence - GS 


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Exclusive, Must Read!!! Part 4: Former KGB Colonel Victor Kalashnikov on the Snowden Affair, Russian Penetration of Western Countries, and the Secret History of the Second World War


Quotes:

"According to Kalashnikov there is “a tremendous chain of continuity across all the ideologies from Soviet to Russian,” from the time of Lenin to present day Russia under Vladimir Putin. This continuity helps explain the problems we face today.

The failure of understanding in the West is not merely academic. There is also a failure of the West’s intelligence services and politicians to understand Russia’s continued affinity with Lenin’s terrorist ideas; and this failure of understanding has profound consequences, in Kalashnikov’s view, especially illustrated by the defection to Russia of Edward Joseph Snowden, a former technical contractor for the United States National Security Agency (NSA) and a former employee of the Central Intelligence Agency.
...

“How was it that the plane to South America with Snowden didn’t have Snowden? Who leaked that disinformation?” asked Kalashnikov. “And Putin is making tremendous gains all the time in this situation. He is the big winner because there is now tension between the U.S. and NATO, between the U.S. and Latin America. We may speculate that’s why Mrs. Napolitano [of Homeland Security] was fired.”
...

I asked Kalashnikov about Snowden’s revelations that the United States is monitoring international telephone and internet traffic. He replied scornfully, “Everyone knows that all major intelligence services are monitoring phone and internet traffic. This is no secret. And making such gains out of nothing, I must confess it is a huge achievement for Moscow! Your side keeps losing, and losing. With the landing of the Bolivian plane in Austria, I must say, somebody submitted the wrong information.”
...

As for Snowden’s judgment or status, Kalashnikov said, “The Russians are going to exploit Snowden again and again. He seems to have no understanding as to what he is doing. Russia is not a friendly country to the United States. Presently the Russian armed forces have conducted the biggest military exercises since the collapse of the Soviet Union, involving 160,000 men, and if someone thinks it’s just a show, well, they are mistaken.”
...

Kalashnikov sees the present international situation as colored by Western misunderstandings. If Snowden wasconfused and disorientedenough to flee to Russia, not realizing he was running into the arms of a hostile state, the United States intelligence community proved unequal to the task of stopping him.
...

Moscow’s forte has been the control of countries through agent networks.

It was Moscow’s way – the Bolshevik way – to infiltrate and manipulate all important countries in a constant effort to bend their policy to fulfill Moscow’s goals. “Russian intelligence was very successful,” said Kalashnikov.
...

This control offers the possibility of undermining the security of any targeted nation during a military crisis or war.
...

According to Kalashnikov the Cold War did not end in 1991. “Putin was installed into power with a special purpose in mind,” he explained. “Putin was installed to facilitate the restoration of the Russian Empire in a new shape, not necessarily as a territorial unity, but as a more profitable formation with a near abroad and much else besides.”

Bit by bit the old empire is being reassembled. “Penetration is growing in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, and growing in Poland and Germany as well,” noted Kalashnikov. “Look, Georgia is already back, and Armenia is more Russian than Belarus. Did you know that Russian missiles tests are conducted in Kazakhstan? Ukraine is a big issue, of course, and is quite controversial. Here the method is to control certain strategic points while leaving the population alone.”

The Cold War continues and few care to notice. The Soviet Imperium is put back together, piece by piece." 


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Q. & A.: Edward Snowden Speaks to Peter Maass - NYT
Quotes by Snowden: "I’m famously paranoid... I was a virgin source..."

How Laura Poitras Helped Snowden Spill His Secrets - NYT
Quote: "Snowden’s revelations are now the center of Poitras’s surveillance documentary, but Poitras also finds herself in a strange, looking-glass dynamic, because she cannot avoid being a character in her own film."

Peter Maass - W
Quote: "In 2005, Forbes Magazine called Maass the "Dunce of the Week" for a New York Times Magazine cover story which predicted higher oil prices due to increased demand and decreased supply. Forbes also suggested that he had a political bias in the way he wrote the story.[6] Maass's story indirectly led to the Simmons–Tierney bet.[7]" 


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Russia's American PR blitz - by Rachel Marsden

Russians infiltrate America's media - GS

Russian infiltration of American media - GS

use of mentally ill as weapons by intelligence services - GS

use of mentally ill as ideological weapons by intelligence services - GS

use of mentally ill as weapons by terrorist organisations - GS

Joint Publication 3-13.2 Military Information Support Operations December 2011

Snowden's mental illness more obvious
Quotes:
"Ecuadorian President Raphael Correa and Putin have figured out that Snowden’s talking crazy, especially knowing, if granted asylum, he couldn’t be trusted not to embarrass their governments. Snowden’s grandiosity, seeing himself as the world’s savior, reveals his clinical sickness, prompting foreign officials to discount his intentions and deny his asylum applications.
...
Anointing himself the world’s savior against government spying is laughable. Foreign leaders have seen through Snowden’s delusions and grandiosity, saying, in effect, we wouldn’t touch this guy with a 10-foot pole. What’s tragic is how the liberal news media fails to report his obvious breakdown, lending credibility to his actions, much like they do WikiLeak’s founder Aussie-born Julian Assange, currently holed up in London at the Ecuadorian embassy. What Assange and Snowden share in common is not their noble whistleblower motives but rather an attempt to blackmail governments. Putin and Correa have figured out today’s finger points at the U.S., tomorrows would be Russia or Ecauador. Traveling with WikiLeak’s activist Sarah Harrison has lent Snowden more credibility than he deserves. When you look at his public statements it’s clear that he’s gone over the deep-end.
...
What Snowden needs is a psychiatric evaluation, appropriate medication and to face the humane side of the American justice system, where his lawyers will allow him a defense of his outrageous behavior, including proving clear signs of mental illness." 


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Рыбкин, Иван Петрович - W

рыбкин иван петрович - GS

РЫБКИНУ ДАЛИ СП-117?

психотропный препарат СП-117 - GS

Сыворотка правды - W

truth serum - GS

ИНТРИГИ КРАСНОГО ДВОРА
С конца 1930-х годов сотрудники НКВД искали "сыворотку правды"

и яд, не оставляющий следов в организме. Все испытания проводились

на людях. Версия Марии Смирновой.


Denis Yevsyukov - GS

The curious case of Denis Yevsyukov - MN

судебно-психиатрическая экспертиза дениса евсюкова - GS

gareth williams death theory - GS

kgb and hypnosis - GS

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Washington Post Site Hacked 'By Syria Group'
Readers are redirected to the site of the Syrian Electronic Army, which has claimed responsibility for hacking other news outlets.10:18pm UK, Thursday 15 August 2013


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bradley manning - GS

"Truth" Drugs in Interrogation - CIA Library

Project MKUltra - W

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»Edward Snowden Says Journalists Have Been Misled About His Legal Situation - TPM
16/08/13 14:36 fromEdward Snowden - Google News
TPMEdward Snowden Says Journalists Have Been Misled About His Legal SituationTPMNSA leaker Edward Snowden told the Huffington Post on Thursday that news organizations have been "misled" by associates of his father into printing &q...
»Edward Snowden Says Journalists Have Been Misled About His Legal Situation - TPM
16/08/13 14:36 fromEdward Snowden - Google News
TPMEdward Snowden Says Journalists Have Been Misled About His Legal SituationTPMNSA leaker Edward Snowden told the Huffington Post on Thursday that news organizations have been "misled" by associates of his father into printing &q...
»Divisions Widen Among Snowden's Supporters - Wall Street Journal
16/08/13 13:50 fromEdward Snowden - Google News
Wall Street JournalDivisions Widen Among Snowden's SupportersWall Street JournalMOSCOW—Former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden and his father spoke for the first time since late May early Thursday, going against the wi...
»Edward Snowden Chatted With His Dad Online Despite Warnings [Updated] - New York Magazine
16/08/13 12:25 fromEdward Snowden - Google News
FAIR (blog)Edward Snowden Chatted With His Dad Online Despite Warnings [Updated]New York MagazineNow that he's out of the airport and into Russia, NSA leaker Edward Snowden is trying to put his life back together. Today, that included r...
»Exclusive: Edward Snowden Says Media Being Misled 'About My Situation' - Huffington Post
16/08/13 12:10 fromEdward Snowden - Google News
Stuff.co.nzExclusive: Edward Snowden Says Media Being Misled 'About My Situation'Huffington PostNEW YORK –- National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden wants to set the record straight after individuals associated with his...
»Edward Snowden: My father and his legal team do not speak for me - CNN
16/08/13 12:01 fromEdward Snowden - Google News
FAIR (blog)Edward Snowden: My father and his legal team do not speak for meCNNIn an e-mailed statement to the news organization, Edward Snowden distanced himself from his father, Lon Snowden; his father's attorney, Bruce Fein; and Fein&...

»Snowden Says Media 'Misled' by Father's Associates
17/08/13 20:00 fromThe Moscow Times Top Stories
Fugitive intelligence leaker Edward Snowden contacted a popular U.S. news website, The Huffington Post, and said media have been "misled" by associates of his father, Lon Snowden, and have published "false" claims about his situation, the w...

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»David Miranda detention: MP asks police for explanation - BBC News
19/08/13 14:40 fromTop Stories - Google News
BBC NewsDavid Miranda detention: MP asks police for explanationBBC NewsPressure is mounting on police to justify the detention of a journalist's partner under terror laws. Senior politicians and an independent reviewer have said police ...

»Britain Detains the Partner of a Reporter Tied to Leaks
19/08/13 14:39 fromNYT > International
David Michael Miranda, a citizen of Brazil and the partner of Glenn Greenwald, was held for nine hours under a counterterrorism law at London’s Heathrow Airport.


»Guardian journalist warns UK over partner’s arrest
19/08/13 15:28 fromFT.com - World
Reporter who revealed mass surveillance by US authorities warns he will expose UK spying secrets after it detained his partner


»London police urged to explain detention of reporter Glenn Greenwald’s partner
19/08/13 14:58 fromWorld: World News, International News, Foreign Reporting - The Washington Post
LONDON— A senior British politician on Monday said he would seek clarification from London police on why anti-terrorism laws were used to detain the partner of a journalist who worked with National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden. Re...


»Snowden journalist to publish UK secrets after Britain detains partner
19/08/13 14:42 fromReuters: International
RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - The journalist who first published secrets leaked by fugitive former U.S. intelligence agency contractor Edward Snowden vowed on Monday to publish more documents and said Britain will be "sorry" for detaining his ...


»Use of UK terror law to detain reporter's partner 'a disgrace'
19/08/13 14:30 fromReuters: International
LONDON (Reuters) - British authorities came under pressure on Monday to explain why anti-terrorism powers were used to detain for nine hours the partner of a journalist who has written articles about U.S. and British surveillance programs b...


»Guardian journalist's partner detained in London
19/08/13 14:16 fromCNN.com - World
Glenn Greenwald, the reporter who broke the news about secret U.S. surveillance programs said the authorities who took his partner into custody at London's Heathrow Airport "are going to regret what they did."


»Britain Under Fire Over Detention of Reporter's Partner
19/08/13 14:08 fromVoice of America
British authorities came under pressure on Monday to explain why anti-terrorism powers were used to detain for nine hours the partner of a journalist who has written articles about U.S. and British espionage programs based on leaks from Edw...


»David Miranda detention: Labour demands review of anti-terror powers - The Guardian
19/08/13 14:00 fromworld - Google News
The GuardianDavid Miranda detention: Labour demands review of anti-terror powersThe GuardianGuardian iPhone · iPad edition · Kindle · Guardian Weekly · Digital edition · The Guardian home · News &mi...


»Greenwald Says U.K. Questioned His Partner
19/08/13 12:59 fromWSJ.com: World News
The partner of American journalist Glenn Greenwald, who has written about U.S. National Security Agency surveillance programs and fugitive document leaker Edward Snowden, was questioned by police in the U.K. on Sunday.


»Boyfriend of UK reporter who reported NSA leaks detained at London airport - New York Daily News
19/08/13 12:23 fromTop Stories - Google News
New York Daily NewsBoyfriend of UK reporter who reported NSA leaks detained at London airportNew York Daily NewsThe longtime partner of the journalist who has reported a series of bombshell leaks on the National Security Agency was detained...


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»Dog the Bounty Hunter: Going After Edward Snowden?! - The Hollywood Gossip
19/08/13 12:41 fromEdward Snowden - Google News
Dog the Bounty Hunter: Going After Edward Snowden?!The Hollywood GossipDog the Bounty Hunter, or Duane Chapman, is reportedly going after Edward Snowden ... even if that means illegally trying to capture him in Russia. “Sometimes you gotta ...


Рабочая встреча с руководителем Пограничной службы ФСБ России Владимиром Кулишовым
Глава погранслужбы ФСБ информировал Президента о текущей деятельности ведомства.

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»US targets lie-detector coaches following Edward Snowden affair - South China Morning Post
18/08/13 20:38 fromEdward Snowden - Google News
US targets lie-detector coaches following Edward Snowden affairSouth China Morning PostThe undercover stings are being cited as the latest examples of the Obama administration's emphasis on rooting out "insider threats," refer...

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»To Russia, with loathing? - Washington Post
19/08/13 13:57 fromRussia - Google News
CBC.caTo Russia, with loathing?Washington PostRussian scholars blame Putin, whose return to the Kremlin in May 2012 inaugurated this period of recalcitrant conservatism, renewed anti-Americanism and intimidation of dissidents and political ...



_



Mike Nova comments: "Vovchick" obviously enjoys holding his new valuable trophyby the gills(in Russian: "держать за жабры"), "a shark, or rather a pike of the American Imperialism", along with its, the trophy's, rather fishy embodiment and spirit in the rather mysterious multiple personalities of Mr. E. Snowden-etc.-s. And he looks like he likes what he sees to the end of his tail.

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Why Putin Is Loving the Snowden Affair- The Atlantic

The Russian leader enjoys humiliating Washington, so the Obama administration shouldn't expect much help from him in nabbing the NSA leaker.
More
putin-snowden-banner.jpg
Reuters
During his 13 years in power, Vladimir Putin has demonstrated a fondness for detaining all kinds of dissidents: rich ones, like the imprisoned tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky; pop culture ones, like the band Pussy Riot. So Putin must be at least somewhat sympathetic to Washington's desire to arrest America's most prominent dissident, Edward Snowden. In remarks on Tuesday, Putin indicated that he didn't want the National Security Agency leaker to remain in a transit zone at a Russian airport, saying "the sooner he chooses his final destination, the better it is for him and Russia."
At the same time, however, Putin said he wasn't going to extradite Snowden. And somewhere behind that cold, Slavic poker face must lurk a serious temptation to keep Snowden around for awhile. Because as much as Putin likes to crack down on dissidents, he also appears to enjoy "continuing to stick his thumb in [America's] eye," as Arizona Sen. John McCain told CNN Tuesday, calling the Russian president a "old KGB colonel apparatchik that dreams of the days of the Russian empire." Beyond that, the potential espionage gold mine Snowden represents has to make the mouth of that old KGB colonel water. (With what he could possibly reveal about the NSA's global surveillance system, Snowden makes Aldrich Ames look like a piker.)

...

_______________________________________________________




Friday, August 2, 2013

We are in the midst of a new type of war: information war, unleashed by Russians

My Dear Lords and my Most Dear Ladies!
My Dear Admiral!
I am afraid to say (or not afraid to say it at all and have to say it) that we are in the midst of a new type of war: information war, unleashed by Russians. It manifests itself as an onslaught of cheap but vicious propaganda campaign around the issues raised by Snowden affair and other related issues. There is a certain evidence that this campaign was planned and prepared in advance and is being executed with a methodical but intellectually deficient precision and meticulousness characteristic of traditional KGB style of operations and was approved and is conducted at the highest levels of Russian formal power structures. This informational aggression has to be met with the appropriate response of the same type. The concepts of information, information security and other related concepts, and their use in intergovernmental relations, including their aggressive, war-like types should be researched, better understood, elaborated and developed for practical purposes. The best minds in science, philosophy and intelligence community should combine their efforts in this project. We live in a new Information Age. We have to understand what it is and its implications. Time is of essence. We have to start working on this. I definitely will not hesitate to communicate with you if I have anything new or valuable to say. Thank you for attention.
Michael

Saturday, July 20, 2013

Four U.S. military veterans who are survivors of military sexual assaults testified Friday before a House of Representatives Veterans' Affairs subcommittee

» US Survivors of Military Sexual Assaults Seek Better Treatment
19/07/13 22:33 from Voice of America
Four U.S. military veterans who are survivors of military sexual assaults testified Friday before a House of Representatives Veterans' Affairs subcommittee. They asked for better care and treatment for their trauma from the U.S. Veterans Ad...

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

FBI and "behavior modification"

For the purposes of our discussion, one of the main questions, and, it seems to me, very important one, from ethical, moral, political and probably many other points of view, is: can a government agency of the free and great country attempt a behavior modification, or behavioral change of its citizen in a nontherapeutic environment and for nontherapeutic purposes, if these practices indeed take place (and they most definitely did occur in the past), regardless of their goals and underlying rationale? Is this not a threat to Liberty that we cherish so much, is this not dangerous in many respects, is this not contrary to the very foundations of our social lives?
I excised this passage from a post on analysability of behavior not because of the self-censorship or any discomfort with this subject; just opposite: because it is so important that it deserves a separate mentioning and a special research, investigation and discussion. However, I do not think that this is a right time for a public discussion of this issue (although, arguably, of course any time is a right time for any public discussions). I think there are a lot of other pressing issues at hand that might deserve a higher priority. Besides that, I do not really know much about it and I do not think that anyone does except, maybe a group of "specialists". I think the best thing to do at this point is for the FBI to conduct their own internal examination of this issue and all its potential implications. Personally, I will continue to study this subject, as reasonably, as my time permits. I do not think there are reasons  at this point not to trust the FBI with moral and ethical judgements in general and with this issue in particular. From my point of view, I would question not only the ethical and moral aspects of it, but also, not less importantly, the overall efficiency of these strategies, their scientific basis and their cost-efficiency. As my questions imply, I suspect that they are inefficient, have very little, if any, scientific basis (behaviorism itself, it seems to me is a rather crude and mechanistic approach to human nature), and are very expensive to conduct. If FBI decides to consult me on this or any other issue, of course, I would be happy to help, but at this point, again, I think they probably would feel more comfortable to deal with it by themselves. Which does not exclude the expectation that their findings (open, honest, in-depth) will be shared with the public and will be discussed with the public. Again, this issue is too important to ignore it or to cover it up.

Michael Novakhov

Links and References

Applied behavior analysis - GS

Applied behavior analysis - W

Crime analysis - W

applied behavior analysis and fbi - GS

behavior modification - GS

Operant conditioning - W

behavior modification and fbi - GS

Does fbi practice behavior modification? - GS

COINTELPRO - W

Behavioral Analysis Unit - W

Behavioral Science Unit - W

sociotherapy - GS

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Is human behavior analysable and understandable in principle? - "Would you pluck out the heart of my mystery?"


5:30 - 7:00

Uploaded on Jan 18, 2010 
Act III, scene 2. The players perform "The Murder of Gonzago." Hamlet brags to Horatio that he has exposed Claudius. Rosencrantz and Guildenstern come to tell him that his mother is looking for him. Part 2. 

"GUILDENSTERN O, my lord, if my duty be too bold, my love is too
unmannerly.
HAMLET I do not well understand that. Will you play upon
this pipe?
GUILDENSTERN My lord, I cannot.
HAMLET I pray you.
GUILDENSTERN Believe me, I cannot.
HAMLET I do beseech you.
GUILDENSTERN I know no touch of it, my lord.
HAMLET 'Tis as easy as lying: govern these ventages with
your fingers and thumb, give it breath with your
mouth, and it will discourse most eloquent music.
Look you, these are the stops.
GUILDENSTERN But these cannot I command to any utterance of
harmony; I have not the skill.

HAMLET  Why, look you now, how unworthy a thing you make of
me! You would play upon me; you would seem to know
my stops; you would pluck out the heart of my
mystery; you would sound me from my lowest note to
the top of my compass: and there is much music,
excellent voice, in this little organ; yet cannot
you make it speak. 'Sblood, do you think I am
easier to be played on than a pipe? Call me what
instrument you will, though you can fret me, yet you
cannot play upon me."



"I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."
- Sir Isaac Newton


Is human behavior analysable in principle?

Is human behavior understandable in principle?

Yes, but to a certain degree, and ultimately - not.

The various attempts at understanding it depend on a multitude of factors: from purposes and contexts of these attempts at understanding to various characteristics of subject and object: of what is attempted to be understood and who attempts it. The more complex they are, the more complex is the outcome of these attempts.

What is behavior and what is analysis?


Definitions of "behavior"

From Wikipedia (and similar definitions from other  sources which are more or less the same):

Behavior in general is defined as "the range of actions and mannerisms made by organisms, systems, or artificial entities in conjunction with their environment, which includes the other systems or organisms around as well as the physical environment. It is the response of the system or organism to various stimuli or inputs, whether internal or external, conscious or subconscious, overt or covert, and voluntary or involuntary."

Human behavior is defined as "the range of behaviors exhibited by humans and which are influenced by culture, attitudes, emotions, values, ethics, authority, rapport, hypnosis, persuasion, coercion and/or genetics.
The behavior of people (and other organisms or even mechanisms) falls within a range with some behavior being common, some unusual, some acceptable, and some outside acceptable limits. In sociology, behavior in general is considered as having no meaning, being not directed at other people, and thus is the most basic human action. Behavior in this general sense should not be mistaken with social behavior, which is a more advanced action, as social behavior is behavior specifically directed at other people. The acceptability of behavior is evaluated relative to social norms and regulated by various means of social control.
The behavior of humans is studied by the academic disciplines of psychiatry, psychology, social work, sociology, economics, and anthropology."

From Encyclopædia Britannica:
"the potential and expressed capacity for physical, mental, and social activity during the phases of human life."

Can we accept these definitions as satisfactory? Hardly.

It seems to me that the cardinal feature of definition of behavior should be its overt, expressed character: actions and "mannerisms" which are evident to others (and usually, to some degree, to the subject also) and are directly observable, as opposed to various inner mental activities which are not directly observable, although might be hypothetically postulated based on observations. More precise term should be "overt behavior": by definitions (whatever unsatisfactory they are), it is always overt. When it is "covert", it is not behavior, it is "mental life", or "mental processes".
"It has sometimes been said that 'behave is what organisms do'." (Behaviorism - SEP)
We can rephrase it a bit: human behavior is what humans do. This leaves out of the equation all the rest: determinants, motivations, etc., which should be the subjects of separate considerations and studies. In a way "behavior" is a "black box":
"In science and engineering, a black box is a device, system or object which can be viewed in terms of its input, output and transfer characteristics without any knowledge of its internal workings. Its implementation is "opaque" (black). Almost anything might be referred to as a black box: a transistor, an algorithm, or the human mind."

From a very superficial and preliminary review of sources, I got the impression that philosophers prefer to use the notion of "human nature" rather than "human behavior", and the notion of "human nature" appears to be much deeper, richer and ontologically oriented. Apparently, they are less interested in how humans behave and more in what they (really) are. This is a very interesting difference in approach to this subject. Probably overt behavior is viewed by philosophers as something that is too fluid, too passing, too secondary in comparison with its underlying primary "nature" and "essence".

Behavior is very changeable (at least and most of the time on a surface, sometimes - deeply, when someone appears to be a different person at various stages in his/her life), its nature and essence remain largely the same.

Now we have to turn to the "analysis of analysis": to what it is and how it impacts the subject of our discussion.


Links and References

Is human behavior analysable in principle? - GS

Is human behavior understandable in principle? - GS

Understanding human behaviour: taking a more complex approach - The Guardian
Large-scale surveys are useful but if we are serious about changing behaviours, we must use every tool to understand human complexity. This is the first in a 5-part series of posts based on Steven Johnson's upcoming book, 'Considered Creative'.

behavior - GS

Behavior - W

human behavior - GS

Human behavior - W

human behaviour - Encyclopædia Britannica

Results for "human behavior" Search - SEP

human behavior definition - GS

Behaviorism - W

Principle of least effort - W

Black box theory - W

Human nature - W

philosophy of human nature - GS

philosophy of behavior - GS

philosophy of human behavior - GS

philosophy of human person - GS

philosophers of human behavior - GS

philosophers on human beings - GS

ontology - GS

Natural law - W

behavior and mind - GS

behavior and soul - GS

behavioral styles - GS

behavior styles sigmund freud - GS

behavior and law - GS

human behavior and law - GS

attachment behaviors - GS

detachment behaviors - GS

analysis - GS

analysability - GS

synthesis - GS

understanding - GS

analysis of human behavior - GS

analysability of human behavior - GS

Intelligence analysis - W

Applied behavior analysis - GS

Applied behavior analysis - W

Crime analysis - W

applied behavior analysis and fbi - GS

behavior modification - GS

Operant conditioning - W

behavior modification and fbi - GS

Does fbi practice behavior modification? - GS

COINTELPRO - W

Behavioral Analysis Unit - W

Behavioral Science Unit - W

sociotherapy - GS

self-analysis - GS

Self-assessment - W

Political psychology - W

_____________________________________________

First Published on 7.13.13     Last Update on 7.14.13

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Comments on Richards Heuer's "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis"

Comments on Richards Heuer's "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis"


Psychology of Intelligence Analysis - Richards J. Heuer, Jr.

"What Heuer examines so clearly and effectively is how the human thought process builds its own models through which we process information. This is not a phenomenon unique to intelligence; as Heuer’s research demonstrates, it is part of the natural functioning of the human cognitive process, and it has been demonstrated across a broad range of fields ranging from medicine to stock market analysis." (p. ix) 

The common element is the need and the ability to "make judgments based on incomplete and ambiguous information..." (p. 2). 

The terms "ability" and "judgement" are in want of further elaboration. 

PART I—OUR MENTAL MACHINERY

Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking

"A central focus of this book is to illuminate the role of the observer in determining what is observed and how it is interpreted." (p. 4)

"Before obtaining a license to practice, psychoanalysts are required to undergo psychoanalysis themselves in order to become more aware of how their own personality interacts with and conditions their observations of others. The practice of psychoanalysis has not been so successful that its procedures should be emulated by the intelligence and foreign policy community. But the analogy highlights an interesting point: Intelligence analysts must understand themselves before they can understand others. Training is needed to (a) increase self-awareness concerning generic problems in how people perceive and make analytical judgments concerning foreign events, and (b) provide guidance and practice in overcoming these problems." (p. 4) 


These are very interesting analogy and point: "self-awareness" and "self-understanding" (of your own background, motivation, personality and reactions set and their impacts and influence on "analytical judgements" as a tool and a factor in improving their "objectivity", quality and "correctness" or veracity and hopefully diminishing the influence of various emotional, cognitive and logical biases. The question remains what are or should be the criteria for evaluating the outcome, "objectivity", quality and "correctness" of these judgements. 

This quote also brings up the issue of general usefulness (or not usefulness) of various psychodynamic theories and practices in the light of their very questionable therapeutic "success"  and a lack of true scientific basis. 

"It is simply assumed, incorrectly, that analysts know how to analyze." (p. 5)
This statement can be applied to any type of "analysts", be them "psychoanalysts" or stock traders. It also, and probably inevitably, brings us to the general issue of what "analysis" really is, to philosophical and epistemological aspects of it. The nature and the unique tool sets of any analytical activity is determined by its pragmatic scope; there are many very different analyses which are defined by practical needs for them. 

"The disadvantage of a mind-set is that it can color and control our perception to the extent that an experienced specialist may be among the last to see what is really happening when events take a new and unexpected turn. When faced with a major paradigm shift, analysts who know the most about a subject have the most to unlearn." (p. 5)

This is also very interesting, important and correct point and observation. It is similar to the cognitive (and also emotional and other) difficulties in reevaluating and changing the initial or established diagnostic impressions in clinical medical practice, when the new data sets are accumulated. The true extent, impact and significance of this general problem probably is not known by us very well and it comes up mostly in medical malpractice situations. 

"Major paradigm shifts" definitely present challenges to their adherents, who are invested into them cognitively, emotionally and professionally. T. Kuhn, describing "paradigm shifts" in science, observed that most of the adherents of old paradigms do not really change their views, they continue to stick with the old paradigms and simply die with them

"If analysts’ understanding of events is greatly influenced by the mind-set or mental model through which they perceive those events, should there not be more research to explore and document the impact of different mental models?" (p. 5-6) 

Most definitely, it should be more research in this area. 

"The reaction of the Intelligence Community to many problems is to collect more information, even though analysts in many cases already have more information than they can digest." 
The so called "principle of parsimony (Occam's razor)" might be applicable in these situations. 


Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can’t We See What Is There To Be Seen?

"Moreover, the circumstances under which intelligence analysis is conducted are precisely the circumstances in which accurate perception tends to be most difficult." (p. 7) 
"Perception implies understanding as well as awareness. It is a process of inference in which people construct their own version of reality on the basis of information provided through the five senses." (p. 7) 

"We tend to perceive what we expect to perceive." (p. 8)

Perceptions, simple and complex (not just simple sensory - this is what is usually meant by perceptions in psychiatry and psychology, but complex, mental, "informational", so to speak, perceptions; which are completely different phenomena by their nature) are processed in "gestalts": patterns, perceptual mini-concepts, perceptual frameworks, perceptual mini-paradigms, if you will; which include the perceptual mental set and expectations: "...what people in general and analysts in particular perceive, and how readily they perceive it, are strongly influenced by their past experience, education, cultural values, and role requirements, as well as by the stimuli recorded by their receptor organs." (p. 8) 

"Expectations have many diverse sources, including past experience, professional training, and cultural and organizational norms." (p. 9) 

"Perception is also influenced by the context in which it occurs. Different circumstances evoke different sets of expectations." (p. 9) 

The role and purpose of these perceptual gestalts or perceptual mini-paradigms (just like for any paradigm as a conceptual framework in general), besides the inherent phenomenon of "mental economy" (organisation of mental processes in a most efficient way) is to provide us with the complete perceptual picture, to compensate and to fill out for missing perceptual elements and parts (this process is based on perceptual mental set, previous experiences and expectations) , for no perception is absolutely and entirely complete in its process. The role of a paradigm in general as a cognitive device is to compensate the lack of exact, precise, detailed and complete knowledge by adding the unifying, all-encompassing and cementing element of belief  into this complex cognitive system, and belief becomes its affective, emotional component. That is why people hold on to their paradigms or belief systems so tenaciously: they are strongly invested into them affectively, emotionally. In other words, if we do not know something exactly, very often we simply believe that we do, rather than to face the unknown. 

See gestalts theory of perception - GS.

Heuer's definition of a "mind-set": 
"Patterns of expectations tell analysts, subconsciously, what to look for, what is important, and how to interpret what is seen. These patterns form a mind-set that predisposes analysts to think in certain ways. A mind-set is akin to a screen or lens through which one perceives the world."
Heuer's "mind-sets" might be defined more accurately (arguably) as "perceptual mental sets". 

"Actually, mind-sets are neither good nor bad; they are unavoidable." (p. 10)

"Analysts do not achieve objective analysis by avoiding preconceptions; that would be ignorance or self-delusion. Objectivity is achieved by making basic assumptions and reasoning as explicit as possible so that they can be challenged by others and analysts can, themselves, examine their validity." (p. 10)

I think that the more exact way of putting it would be that "making basic assumptions and reasoning as explicit as possible" does not achieve objectivity itself but is simply an attempt at achieving it. Objectivity itself might be an ever elusive goal and, which is more, might be in principle, inherently antithetical to the nature and purposes of intelligence analysis. 

Characteristics of Heuer's "mind-sets: 

They are relatively stable and adhere to initial impressions: "mind-sets tend to be quick to form but resistant to change." (p. 10) 

New data sets tend to be "auxillary", additional to already existing and perceptually established sets: "new information is assimilated to existing images", "... gradual, evolutionary change often goes unnoticed." (p. 11) 

In other words, in order for newly added information to acquire proper significance and value, it might take a "paradigm change or shift" (of various magnitudes and hierarchies), it has to be evaluated properly within a new conceptual framework or by a new evaluator who uses this framework without preexisting misconceptions and biases that come with the old paradigm. 
"A fresh perspective is sometimes useful; past experience can handicap as well as aid analysis." (p. 11) 

The ambiguity of newly added information contributes to its "additional, auxillary" character and probably to some depreciation of its true significance and value because this ambiguity does not allow the new information to fit easily into existing conceptual framework and might require a new one, a new paradigm, a new thinking or a new thinker (which are the same) in order for it to be appreciated fully or more correctly. 

"This tendency to assimilate new data into pre-existing images is greater “the more ambiguous the information, the more confident the actor is of the validity of his image, and the greater his commitment to the established view.” (p. 11-12) 

One might recall an old and trite adage: what we see or able to see depends on our points of view. 

"One of the more difficult mental feats is to take a familiar body of data and reorganize it visually or mentally to perceive it from a different perspective. Yet this is what intelligence analysts are constantly required to do. In order to understand international interactions, analysts must understand the situation as it appears to each of the opposing forces, and constantly shift back and forth from one perspective to the other as they try to fathom how each side interprets an ongoing series of interactions." (p. 13)

The more points of view we have, the fuller and more comprehensive is the picture. 

"Initial exposure to blurred or ambiguous stimuli interferes with accurate perception even after more and better information becomes available" (p. 13): the first impression is the strongest and might skew the evaluation of the newly acquired and better information.

Heuer cites the results of a psychological experiment: "In other words, the greater the initial blur, the clearer the picture had to be before people could recognize it. Second, the longer people were exposed to a blurred picture, the clearer the picture had to be before they could recognize it." (p. 14) 

"The early but incorrect impression tends to persist because the amount of information necessary to invalidate a hypothesis is considerably greater than the amount of information required to make an initial interpretation." (p. 14) 

Refutation of the preformed or preexisting "perceptual hypothesis" might require not only the greater amount of information but also the newer and better ways of processing it, a new "perceptual paradigm", a new perceptual framework. However the qualitative paradigmatic switch will require the adequate, sufficient and convincing quantitative accumulation of the new data.

Implications for Intelligence Analysis

"Comprehending the nature of perception has significant implications for understanding the nature and limitations of intelligence analysis. The circumstances under which accurate perception is most difficult are exactly the circumstances under which intelligence analysis is generally conducted—dealing with highly ambiguous situations on the basis of information that is processed incrementally under pressure for early judgment. This is a recipe for inaccurate perception." (p. 14)

"Intelligence seeks to illuminate the unknown. Almost by definition, intelligence analysis deals with highly ambiguous situations. As previously noted, the greater the ambiguity of the stimuli, the greater the impact of expectations and pre-existing images on the perception of that stimuli. Thus, despite maximum striving for objectivity, the intelligence analyst’s own preconceptions are likely to exert a greater impact on the analytical product than in other fields where an analyst is working with less ambiguous and less discordant information." (p. 14) 

"Once an observer thinks he or she knows what is happening, this perception tends to resist change. New data received incrementally can be fit easily into an analyst’s previous image. This perceptual bias is reinforced by organizational pressures favoring consistent interpretation; once the analyst is committed in writing, both the analyst and the organization have a vested interest in maintaining the original assessment." (p. 16) 

We might call this observation and phenomenon "institutional perceptual bias".

"Given the difficulties inherent in the human processing of complex information", Heuer recommends: 
  • to "clearly delineate ... assumptions and chains of inference and that specify the degree and source of uncertainty involved in the conclusions."
  • to "re-examine key problems from the ground up in order to avoid the pitfalls of the incremental  approach."  
  • to "expose and elaborate alternative points of view." 
  • to "define a set of realistic expectations as a standard against which to judge analytical performance." 
(p. 16)


My conclusions: always doubt, always be ready for change, always consider the alternative ways of looking at things.  

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Links and References

Intelligence analysis - W

analytic epistemology - GS

Epistemology (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)


international political behavior

history of intelligence 

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First Published: 7.10.13      Last Update: 7.13.13